Fresh attempts by the United States and Saudi Arabia to reach a defense pact are part of a wider effort to reshape regional and global dynamics, and to degrade Iran’s influence, according to observers in Israel.
Yaakov Lappin
(JNS)
Sky News Arabic reported on Nov. 10 that Saudi Arabia and the United States are working on a defense pact intended to be finalized by the end of the year, with implications for “stability arrangements” in Lebanon and Gaza. The Biden administration is reportedly seeking Senate support for the agreement.
According to Meir Ben Shabbat, who served as the head of Israel’s National Security Council between 2017-2021, led Israeli delegations for the signing of the Abraham Accords and currently heads the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy, the proposed pact is “one component within a broader deal between the two countries.”
From Washington’s perspective, “The expansion and deepening of ties with Saudi Arabia may serve American interests: political, security and economic, in the struggle for the new world order, in competition against China and Russia, and in the fight against Iran.”
There is also potential for mega-projects “like connecting India to the Mediterranean, for political initiatives like regional normalization, and for economic and technological opportunities,” he added.
From Riyadh’s point of view, although it has adopted an approach of “diversifying support systems and ties, the Saudi Vision of 2030 still turns toward the West,” he said. “The attitude of the Biden administration in its early years pushed the royal [Saudi] house into the arms of Beijing. The [Saudi] approach to Tehran was also due to Iran’s strengthening and increased audacity in light of the restrained approach demonstrated by the Biden administration,” he added, though noting that roots of the hostility between Riyadh and Tehran run deep.
Their differences are “religious and ethnic, and do not dissipate following such or other agreements,” said Ben-Shabbat.
As to whether the proposed pact being concluded by year’s end was realistic, he couldn’t say, but noted that, “The Trump administration is good news for anyone who understands that Iran is a central threat to peace and stability in the world, that it is the root of all evil in the Middle East, and that the fight against it requires a proactive and assertive approach.”
Trump and his people, said Ben Shabbat, “also understand the central role that Saudi Arabia can play in the stability of the Middle East and in shaping the new order. In Saudi Arabia, they can certainly see as an opportunity the practical and realistic approach that Trump and his people will bring with them.”
The “stability arrangements” in Gaza and Lebanon referred to in the Sky News report, he said, “expresses a desire to see the end of the war in these areas, but it also contains an understanding that as long as power elements operate in them in the form of Iran’s proxies, there will be no stability.”
While a desire to end the war is understandable, he said, it is this situation that needs ending.
“I think that Saudi Arabia, like Israel and the United States, does not want to see these elements in positions of power and influence in these areas,” he added.
According to professor Benny Miller, an expert on international relations from the School of Political Sciences at the University of Haifa, the Saudis may prefer to conclude such a pact with the incoming Trump administration.
“Regarding the potential Saudi-U.S. alliance, [U.S. President Joe] Biden is very much interested in it as part of his legacy. However, the Saudis might prefer to do it under Trump. He’s the future, so why not establish close relations with him and also potentially give him the gift of normalization with Israel—which his supporters will love very much?” said Miller.
One problem with this scenario, he continued, is that Democrats in the Senate are unlikely to endorse a U.S.-Saudi alliance under Trump.
“Thus, the proposed alliance will not have the required two-thirds of votes in the Senate to be approved. Under Biden, however, the GOP senators will prefer to leave it to Trump—especially if normalization with Israel is included—as their supporters would love it very much,” he said.
“On the other hand, if normalization with Israel is included in the current package deal under Biden—an item that Biden would love to have)—they [Republican senators] might support it, fearing that it will not be approved under Trump because of the Democrats’ opposition; thus, Israel might lose a major accomplishment.”
On Sunday, Reuters reported that the chief of staff of Saudi Arabia’s armed forces, Fayyad al-Ruwaili, had visited Tehran to meet with his Iranian counterpart and discuss defense ties.
Miller assessed that “this is the Saudis hedging—because of their concern that the United States might disengage from the region under Trumpist/populist isolationist inclinations.”
The Reuters report cited Iranian state media as stating that the Saudi chief of staff, al-Ruwaili, “headed a high-level Saudi military delegation in Tehran and met Armed Forces Chief of Staff Major General Mohammad Bagheri. Iranian state media said the two military officials discussed various issues, including ‘the development of defense diplomacy and the expansion of bilateral cooperation.’”
Image: U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan al Saud in the King Khalid Airport in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Oct. 23, 2024. Credit: Chuck Kennedy/U.S. State Department.
